It’s been an unexpected and exciting start to the Harpenden home market in 2025. In this Q2 update, here’s what we’ll be discussing:
- 2025 so far – what do the numbers say?
- How Trump’s tariff wars could impact
- April tax changes and the Spring Statement
- Forecast for the rest of 2025
- A potential opportunity?
2025 So Far
In January, in the first market update of the year, I expressed cautious optimism for the year, as the market between £500,000 and £1million was definitely becoming more buoyant. At the time, viewings on any of our £1 million+ homes were pretty slow.
I’m delighted to tell you that things have changed – hugely!
We’re not quite at 2021 volumes yet, but through February and March, buyers at ALL price points have been moving quickly and decisively to buy their Harpenden properties.
Although Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the OBR have halved the growth forecast for 2025, the numbers in the table to the right speak for themselves.
We just need this momentum to continue. But of course, it’s never that simple. Enter President Trump…
The ongoing Trump vs The World trade and tariff war continues to have far-reaching effects on global markets, with no obvious ending yet in sight.
Let’s look at the likely impact to the property market:
1. Increased Material Cost
Rising global tariffs on materials like steel, aluminium, and timber have driven up construction costs, affecting both new builds and renovation projects. As a result, some homeowners have found it more cost-effective and convenient to move rather than renovate. Over time, this trend could lead to a shortage of high-quality properties in Harpenden, driving up property prices.
2. International Buyers
The ripple effects of the trade wars on the global economy could impact international buyers, many of whom are significant in the high-value home market in the UK. With fluctuating tariffs and trade policies causing huge uncertainty in exchange rates, foreign buyers may become more cautious, especially as the pound continues to get stronger against the dollar.
3. Cost of Living
With tariffs in place, the cost of living in the UK can only go one way. How much and when is down to how quickly Trump and Starmer can potentially thrash out a deal. But even then, the tariff wars between the US and the likes of China doesn’t look like something that’ll be over anytime soon. Both sides will want to ‘win’, when in fact, both will probably ‘lose’. Any rise in the cost of living is bad news for the property market, as people look to conserve money rather than spend.
4. Interest Rates
In potentially positive news, many mortgage advisors predict that home loan prices will decrease faster than anticipated. This is because the Bank of England is working to counter the expected rise in inflation. Swap rates, which help mortgage companies predict future rates, have dropped following Trump’s tariffs. Lower interest rates are likely to boost buyer activity, which could, in turn, drive up property prices.
April Tax Changes (and the Spring Statement)
In last year’s Autumn Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a series of tax changes set to take effect in April 2025. Now that the time has come, we’ll review some key changes and their potential impact on the Harpenden property market – especially the high-end sector.
Stamp Duty: In England and Northern Ireland, the Stamp Duty thresholds have been lowered, impacting all property transactions that weren’t completed before 1st April (and no, unfortunately, it wasn’t an April Fool’s joke).
The ‘Stamp Duty Holiday’ brought in by the Conservatives in September 2022 moved the threshold for paying Stamp Duty on a primary residence from £125,000 to £250,000. This has now reverted. A first-time buyer’s threshold has dropped from £425,000 to £300,000.
Impact: We got a little head start with this one. For the purpose of calculating Stamp Duty, the key date is the date of legal completion. The date of exchanging contracts and the date when the sale was agreed are not relevant. This means that given most sales from the beginning of January onwards were unlikely to complete before the change in the thresholds, the momentum we’ve been seeing over the last couple of months is unrelated.
Main Home Council Tax: Council tax rose again at the start of April, with authorities increasing by up to 5%.
Impact: We don’t expect to see any impact on the property market in our area.
Second Home Council Tax: From the 1st April, many councils around the UK will impose a ‘Second Home Council Tax’ premium of 100%.
There are a few notable exceptions to the new rule:
- Class G – dwelling being actively marketed for sale (12 months max)
- Class H – dwelling being actively marketed for let (12 months max)
- Class I – Probate – property under Council Tax Band F, providing it is empty, until probate is granted
Impact: We expect this tax to have some impact, though probably a small one. From a buyer’s perspective, higher annual costs are never a selling point. This is likely to slow second-home sales slightly and help keep a lid on prices.
Spring Statement:
On 26th March, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her much-anticipated Spring Statement. Here’s what happened:
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) halved the UK growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%. While the short-term forecasts look gloomy, the OBR predicts a better long-term picture. Overall, this is likely to have a neutral impact on the property market.
Reeves stated that the OBR has forecast that government housing reforms will boost housebuilding to 305,000 units over the next 5 years. However, this amounts to just a 0.5% increase in housing stock – effectively a net reduction by the end of Parliament. As a result, property values in the UK are likely to rise even faster.
Large welfare cuts, suggestions of more future tax rises and civil service departments cuts, as well as an increase in defence spending, were also announced.
Keep an Eye Out for: The ‘Renters’ Rights Bill’
The Renters’ Rights Bill, currently under consideration in Parliament, aims to shift the power in the rental market away from landlords and towards tenants. Although some details are still being finalised, there’s no doubt this has already made – and will continue to make – being a landlord more complex and costly.
This will have the effect of limiting the number of new landlords looking to invest, as well as persuading current landlords to off-load their investment properties. This can only both lower property prices in the investment market and push rents up.
2025 Forecast
Unless you’ve got some exotic trip booked, this will probably be the warmest and brightest forecast you’ll read over the next few weeks, because the Harpenden property market is looking hot!
There is a slight risk of showers, as explained above (Trump), but we predict no major storms.
n fact, Rightmove, the primary source of house sale data, expects prices to rise 4% in 2025. They also predict that the number of property transactions will exceed their 1.15 million forecast, already an increase from the past two years.
What does all this mean for you? See below:
An Opportunity Arises…
For the first time since late 2022, it feels like a window of real opportunity has arisen in the Harpenden property market for home sellers. If selling your home is on your mind for the next 12–18 months, now might be the perfect time to consider moving up your plans.
If this is you, let’s have a chat.
We may decide that right now isn’t the best time for you, or your property. But if it is, you’ll be armed with the key information you need to make a decision.
Here’s how you can arrange a confidential chat:
✔ Call the team on 01582 260580 – they’ll be able to find a time that suits us both
✔ WhatsApp – you can reach me direct on 07593 308666
✔ Email – for a quick response, you can get the team on info@tuckfieldestates.com or come directly through on suzette.shipton@tuckfieldestates.com
Not ready to sell just yet? That’s perfectly fine. If you think we can add value to your decision-making process, we’d love to hear from you. Over half of our Consultations are with clients who aren’t planning to sell immediately, and we’re always happy to help. Your call will never be a waste of our time.
If we don’t hear from you in the next couple of months, then we’ll catch up again in Q3.