As we enter a new year, many local homeowners across Harpenden and St Albans are facing a familiar question:
Should they bring their home to market in January, or wait until the late spring?
In recent conversations I have had with buyers, sellers, and buy-to-let landlords in both Harpenden and St Albans in the run-up to Christmas, one question kept cropping up in relation to that decision to move or not:
“What will happen to house prices in 2026?”
Some buyers, especially first-time buyers, worry they are about to purchase just before a potential downturn. Some homeowners want to know whether there will be a boom and, if so, where the market top might be before they sell. A number of landlords feel stuck, unsure whether to buy more or start selling part of their portfolio.
No one has a crystal ball, but most property experts are not predicting doom and gloom. Yet the question remains: will we see a boom?
When people ask where Harpenden or St Albans house prices are heading, they often look for predictions, forecasts, or bold headlines – even crystal balls. However, the direction of any property market is driven by something far more basic.
House prices are, at their core, a function of supply and demand. When there are more buyers than homes available, prices are supported. When the balance tips the other way, prices soften. Strip away the noise, and that relationship has not changed … ever.
Supply of Homes: Harpenden vs St Albans
Let us look first at supply, as the number of properties for sale often tells us far more about the likely direction of house prices than any headline forecast.
Harpenden Supply
In the Harpenden area, the number of homes for sale at the start of each year has been:
- January 2020: 238
- January 2021: 281
- January 2022: 217
- January 2023: 238
- January 2024: 253
- January 2026: 191
The pandemic caused many Harpenden households to reassess what they wanted from their homes. Bigger rooms and more space became priorities. This so-called race for space in late 2020 and 2021 accelerated moves that many families had planned for between then and 2023.
As more people wanted to buy, demand increased, homes were purchased, and supply reduced. There simply were not enough Harpenden homes available to meet that demand, which inevitably pushed prices upward.
Some may ask whether today’s lower stock levels could trigger a crash. However, for perspective, in 2008 the number of homes for sale in Harpenden sat between 360 and 410. Unless supply returns to those levels, conditions remain relatively balanced.
St Albans Supply
In St Albans, the equivalent figures are:
- January 2020: 1,091
- January 2021: 1,250
- January 2022: 809
- January 2023: 999
- January 2024: 1,113
- January 2026: 1,186
So, as you can see, the number of St Albans homes for sale fell in 2022 (remember, this was a period when house prices were rising), and now, as we enter 2026, we are back at 2020 levels.
The same pandemic-driven reassessment of living space applied in St Albans. Demand surged, transactions accelerated, and supply tightened during 2020–2022, pushing prices higher.
Yet some could ask, with the number of St Albans homes on the market, at what appears to be a very high level compared to other years, does that mean we will be heading for a house price crash? While the supply of property on the market is certainly higher (compared to a few years ago, back in 2008, the number of homes for sale in St Albans was between 2,200 and 2,300). Unless supply levels get back to those amounts, things should be ok.
While it is still too early to be definitive about 2026, most commentators agree that a major crash is unlikely given excess supply.
Demand: How Many Homes Are Actually Selling?
Demand is measured by completed sales, and this is where both towns show important resilience.
Harpenden Demand (AL5)
- 2020: 464
- 2021: 636
- 2022: 568
- 2023: 471
- 2024: 468
- 2025: 513
St Albans Demand (AL1–AL4)
- 2020: 1,894
- 2021: 2,371
- 2022: 2,101
- 2023: 1,613
- 2024: 1,765
- 2025: 1,868
Demand in both markets is primarily driven by mortgage availability, affordability, and interest rates.
In 2007, mortgage rates sat between 6.5% and 7.5%. When the economy weakened and unemployment rose by over 60% in just a couple of years, many households were forced to sell. At the same time, the credit crunch dramatically reduced mortgage availability, causing demand to collapse.
This time around, most homeowners are on mortgage rates of around 3% to 5%, real wages are increasing, and unemployment is low and stable. There is far less pressure forcing people to sell homes in either Harpenden or St Albans.
Is 2026 the Right Time to Buy Your First Home?
This depends far more on personal circumstances than on trying to time the market.
If the right home is available, affordable, and suits your needs, delaying can be counterproductive. Buying a home is a long-term commitment, often spanning 25 to 35 years. Waiting endlessly for the perfect moment can mean never getting started at all.
Remember, I wrote recently, mortgage payments for first-time buyers, nationally, are 26.5% cheaper as a percentage of take-home pay than back in 2007. Every month you wait is another month of wasted rental payments.
Low interest rates for first-time buyers still mean attractive mortgage deals for those with solid deposits, particularly on fixed rates. Buyers with more modest deposits can still access 5% deposit mortgages, albeit at slightly higher interest rates – though still well below the peaks seen 18 months ago.
What About Landlords?
Landlords should take some reassurance from the fact that, while house prices remain relatively steady, rents are rising above inflation in many cases, helping to improve rental yields.
So, What Happens Next?
Taking a wider view, these are opinions rather than guarantees. However, if inflation remains contained and interest rates ease slightly, both Harpenden and St Albans house prices are likely to continue rising through 2026 and beyond – albeit at a slower pace than during the exceptional years of 2020 and 2021, and with occasional short-term ups and downs along the way.
My View on 2026 Price Growth
Well, I would say there will be between a 1% and 2% growth in both Harpenden and St Albans houses in 2026, which is very similar to 2025. This is of course an average, and some types of homes and locations within St Albans will outperform that, while others will be slightly behind that
The key is affordability. Plan for future rate rises, build in financial resilience, and make decisions that work for your own circumstances. Do that, and you should be well placed whatever the market does next.
These are my views. What are yours?